OPEC Output Falls In January As Nigeria And Libya

Wednesday 5th February 2026

By inAfrika Newsroom

OPEC output falls January figures signalled a modest supply tightening after a Reuters survey found the producer group’s oil production declined by 60,000 barrels per day to 28.34 million bpd, driven mainly by lower supply from Nigeria and Libya.

Nigeria posted the largest decline in the survey, while Libyan supply was reduced by adverse weather conditions, Reuters reported. The overall drop came even as production rose in Venezuela and Iraq, underscoring how OPEC’s headline output can mask diverging national trends driven by maintenance, capacity constraints, disruption risk and compliance with group targets.

For Africa, the Nigeria and Libya changes matter because both are major exporters whose output often swings due to operational disruptions, pipeline and terminal constraints, weather, and security risks. When their supply tightens, it can affect Atlantic Basin crude availability, influence price benchmarks, and shape government revenues and FX inflows in producer economies.

The survey also highlighted the wider OPEC+ context. OPEC and its allies, including Russia, paused monthly output increases for the first quarter to avoid a potential supply glut, Reuters said. That decision reflects uncertainty over global demand growth and the price sensitivity of consumers as central banks manage inflation.

Capacity constraints are another key feature. Reuters noted some members are near maximum production capacity, while some have implemented additional cuts to compensate for earlier overproduction. This matters because it shapes how credible future supply increases are if prices rise or if geopolitical shocks disrupt non-OPEC producers.

The survey reported that Iran’s crude supply declined amid new US sanctions, while Venezuelan output approached 1 million bpd, supported by higher exports. While those are not Africa-specific, they affect global supply balance and can influence price trajectories that feed into African producer budgets and African importer energy bills.

For non-oil African economies, OPEC supply shifts can transmit through fuel costs, inflation, and current account balances. For oil exporters, the effect is more direct: price and volume changes shape revenue, debt service capacity, and fiscal space for social and infrastructure spending.

OPEC output falls January: what the survey shows

OPEC output falls January by about 60,000 bpd to 28.34 million bpd, with Nigeria recording the biggest drop and Libya affected by bad weather, according to the Reuters survey.

Next steps

Markets will track whether Nigeria and Libya restore volumes, how OPEC+ manages its paused increases, and whether compliance pressures lead to further compensatory cuts among members that previously overshot targets.

Why it matters

Oil output changes influence prices that affect African producer revenues and importer inflation. In a tight fiscal environment, small supply shifts can alter budget assumptions, FX liquidity and debt dynamics.