Zimbabwe 2026 growth forecast trimmed as budget raises gold royalties

Monday 1st December 2025

by inAfrika Newsroom

Zimbabwe 2026 growth forecast now stands at 5 percent, down from 6.6 percent this year, as global headwinds and local constraints weigh on the outlook. Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube presented the new numbers in his 2026 national budget last week.

The revised forecast still marks a rebound from 2024, when drought and currency turmoil cut growth to 1.7 percent. Stronger agriculture and mining output support this year’s 6.6 percent expansion. However, softer external demand, energy shortages and tight financing conditions limit how far the recovery can run.

At the same time, the budget raises royalties on gold producers to cash in on high bullion prices. Authorities hope the measure will boost fiscal revenues without heavy new borrowing. Zimbabwe 2026 growth forecast figures assume the deficit will narrow from 0.3 percent of GDP in 2025 to 0.2 percent in 2026.

Inflation, currently near 19 percent year-on-year, is projected to drop to single digits by early 2026 if exchange rate policy holds. That would be the first time Zimbabwe records such low inflation since the late 1990s.

Next steps for Zimbabwe 2026 growth forecast

The new growth forecast will now guide talks with the International Monetary Fund on a staff-monitored programme. Harare hopes that stronger policy discipline and lower arrears can eventually reopen access to concessional funding.

Domestically, mining companies will recalculate project economics under the higher gold royalty rate. Some may delay marginal investments if after-tax returns fall. Others could fast-track efficiency upgrades to keep profits stable.

Meanwhile, the government must manage farmer support, power imports and social safety nets within tight budget limits. Any major climate or price shock could quickly strain the plan.

Why it matters for Zimbabwe 2026 growth forecast

Zimbabwe 2026 growth forecast numbers are not just for economists. They will shape wage talks, tax plans and investment decisions over the next year. A credible path to lower inflation and stable growth could rebuild confidence after years of volatility.

However, if reforms stall or shocks hit, the country risks sliding back into high inflation and deeper hardship. For ordinary Zimbabweans, the question is whether this budget finally anchors a steady recovery or only marks another brief upswing.