IFAD models how farm support can reduce losses from drought and rising costs

Thursday 12th November 2026

By inAfrika Newsroom

Farmers facing drought and rising input costs could lose less income when they receive support for farm supplies, market access and finance together, according to modelling released at COP31 by the International Fund for Agricultural Development and Türkiye’s agriculture ministry.

In the analysis released on 9 November, combining those measures reduced modelled losses by 18.7%. Financial support alone, such as insurance, reduced them by 9.8%. The model tracks how higher fertiliser and energy prices affect a farmer’s income when drought hits at the same time.

IFAD cited a programme in Kenya that combined training in applying small amounts of fertiliser and growing trees on farms with access to seeds, fertiliser and drought insurance. It also connected farmers with bulk grain buyers. The report uses the programme as an example of several measures delivered together.

The report separately estimates that a severe El Niño could cost the global economy up to US$11 trillion in lost income over five to six years. That estimate includes agricultural losses, damage to infrastructure and effects transmitted through trade and commodity prices. In East Africa, ministers have already endorsed a regional preparedness plan.

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