Valterra Flags Platinum Supply Cut of Up to 20% by 2030

Saturday, 20th September 2025

by inAfrika Reporter

Platinum supply cut looms this decade, Valterra Platinum’s chief executive said on Friday. Global primary output could drop 15%–20% by 2030 as miners halt loss-making shafts and delay new projects. South Africa, which provides over 70% of world supply, has already trimmed production after recent price slumps

Outlook and Drivers

Valterra CEO Craig Miller said demand from carmakers remains firm. Hybrid and petrol cars still need platinum-group metals (PGMs) for catalytic converters. He added that recycling flows are weak because processing costs are high. That limits secondary supply and deepens the expected deficit.

Miller warned that new mines need stronger prices. He said the PGM basket must rise about 50% and hold that level to justify greenfield projects and life-of-mine extensions. Without that lift, companies will run existing assets harder but keep capex tight.

South Africa Cuts and Pricing

Producers in South Africa have closed or mothballed high-cost shafts over the past two years. The recent rally eased pressure, but prices still sit below levels that support new investment. Smelters and converters continue to process ore, yet firms avoid large expansions until margins improve.

The industry’s choice is clear: protect balance sheets or chase volume. For now, executives favor discipline. That stance supports prices in the near term but tightens supply later. If recycling stays costly, the market leans more on shrinking primary output.

What It Means for Buyers

Carmakers could face tighter PGM availability through the decade. Hybrids often use more PGM loadings than pure petrol models, which keeps demand resilient during the transition to electric fleets. Jewelry demand has also held up, Miller said. If prices rise and stay firm, miners may restart some projects. If not, the platinum supply cut likely persists.

Traders will watch three signals next: mine-closure notices, recycling spreads, and company guidance on capex. Any shift in those signals could change the supply curve into 2026 and beyond. For now, the market reads the CEO’s remarks as supportive for prices.