Moody’s Lifts Rwanda Outlook to Stable on Eased DRC Risks

Saturday, 20th September 2025

by inAfrika Newsroom

Moody’s announced a Rwanda outlook upgrade to stable from negative on Friday, citing reduced risks tied to tension with the Democratic Republic of Congo. The agency also affirmed Rwanda’s B2 rating. Officials pointed to steadier foreign-exchange prospects and continued support from development partners

Rwanda outlook upgrade: Moody’s action and context

Moody’s moved the outlook after recent de-escalation steps between Rwanda and the DRC, including a June peace agreement backed by U.S. mediation. The agency said external financial assistance remains strong and should keep supporting Rwanda’s credit profile. It affirmed long-term local and foreign-currency ratings at B2.

Rwanda’s finance ministry highlighted the shift as investor-relevant. A ministry note, issued earlier this week, also flagged brisk second-quarter growth. Government statements frame the outlook change as validation of macro policies and stability efforts.

Drivers and recent financing signals

Moody’s cited lower spillover risk from the DRC conflict and resilient donor flows. It also referenced governance strength relative to peers. Earlier IMF reviews underscored growth momentum and policy coordination, even as external pressures persist. Those reviews kept 2025 growth near 7%, with risks around the current-account gap and the exchange rate.

Rwanda and the DRC also agreed on a regional economic framework covering energy, infrastructure, minerals, parks and public health. That cooperation, if it holds, can support supply chains and investment planning. Moody’s said these factors balance credit challenges.

What changes for investors and officials

A stable outlook lowers immediate downgrade risk. It helps issuers plan terms and calendars for new funding. It can also improve pricing for project finance if sentiment broadens. Officials still face tasks: attract private capital, manage the external position and track import-price shocks. The Rwanda outlook upgrade may bolster roadshows as Kigali markets tourism, manufacturing and tech services.

Analysts will watch three signals next. First, follow-through on the DRC peace track. Second, donor disbursement timing. Third, the pass-through from growth to reserves and debt service. If those trends hold, Rwanda outlook upgrade tailwinds could carry into 2026.