Somalia is navigating a transformative period in its security landscape, transitioning from the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) to the African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM). This shift underscores the country’s focus on rebuilding institutions for sustainable self-governance while exposing the competing ambitions of regional powers like Ethiopia and Egypt, alongside the involvement of global players such as Turkey and the United Nations.
The African Union’s blueprint for AUSSOM aims to support Somalia’s institutions as they take charge of national security and governance. Troops from Uganda, Burundi, Djibouti, and Kenya will contribute to the mission, while Ethiopia’s exclusion reflects tensions over sovereignty. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s agreement with Somaliland’s former leader, perceived by Somalia as undermining its territorial integrity, triggered a diplomatic rift that strained bilateral relations. The agreement raised concerns in Mogadishu over Ethiopia’s recognition of Somaliland’s autonomy, challenging Somalia’s territorial claims and sovereignty. This development not only heightened tensions between the two nations but also complicated Ethiopia’s efforts to maintain a strategic role in Somalia’s security transition. Despite this, Turkey’s mediation under the Ankara Declaration has fostered a thaw in relations by facilitating dialogue between Somalia and Ethiopia. This effort included high-level meetings hosted in Ankara, where Turkish officials emphasized the importance of mutual respect for sovereignty and economic collaboration. As a result, Ethiopia was allowed to pursue commercial sea access without further compromising Somalia’s territorial integrity.
In contrast, Egypt has solidified its strategic role in Somalia’s security framework, leveraging its historical rivalry with Ethiopia. Egypt’s inclusion in AUSSOM through a bilateral agreement aligns with its broader geopolitical strategy to counterbalance Ethiopia’s influence. This move also underscores Egypt’s intent to deepen its presence in the Horn of Africa, a region that has historically been a theater for broader power struggles over resources and maritime routes. Hosting Somalia’s Foreign Minister and securing an invitation to deploy peacekeeping forces highlights Egypt’s proactive engagement in reshaping regional dynamics.
Turkey has emerged as a crucial mediator in this regional dynamic. By brokering the Ankara Declaration, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan successfully redirected the focus from security disputes to commercial collaboration, promoting regional stability. Turkey’s neutral stance and constructive engagement have been instrumental in fostering cooperation between Somalia and Ethiopia.
The United Nations Security Council has also played a vital role in this transition. Its endorsement of AUSSOM demonstrates the international community’s commitment to stabilizing Somalia. By authorizing the mission to commence in January 2025, the UN provides a structured framework for rebuilding Somali institutions and enhancing national security.
The competition between Ethiopia and Egypt in Somalia reflects broader geopolitical dynamics in the Horn of Africa. While Ethiopia’s exclusion from AUSSOM highlights challenges in restoring trust, Egypt’s proactive involvement underscores its intent to expand regional influence. Turkey’s mediating role and the UN’s structured support further emphasize the complexity of Somalia’s peacekeeping transition.
The success of AUSSOM hinges on balancing these regional and international interests. Ethiopia’s efforts to rebuild relations under the Ankara Declaration may face hurdles if tensions resurface, while Egypt’s growing engagement could reshape alliances in the Horn of Africa. As Somalia navigates these challenges, stakeholders must prioritize long-term solutions such as strengthening Somalia’s institutions, fostering regional cooperation, and ensuring sustainable development. The path forward will require continuous dialogue, resource mobilization, and a commitment to addressing root causes of instability for a lasting peace.
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