Kenya US Trade Talks Target Year-End Deal as AGOA Deadline Nears

Saturday 20th September 2025

from inAfrika Newsroom

Kenya US trade negotiations advanced this week, with Nairobi targeting a year-end agreement designed to keep U.S. market access intact if the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) lapses at month-end. Trade Minister Lee Kinyanjui told Reuters the government is pursuing a bilateral pact that mirrors AGOA’s duty-free terms to protect shipments—especially apparel—into the U.S. market. Kenya’s goods exports to the U.S. totaled $737.1 million in 2024, according to U.S. data.

Deal Target and Timelines

Talks relaunched in recent weeks are focused on a narrow, high-impact package that officials say could be concluded by December. The aim is to preserve continuous preferences for priority lines while a broader framework continues in parallel. Reuters reports that the ministry views a bilateral instrument as a hedge against a tariff shock should AGOA expire without an immediate extension.

U.S. trade records show total two-way goods trade of roughly $1.5 billion in 2024, underscoring why predictable terms matter for orders already scheduled for late-year and early-2026 delivery windows. Chapters under discussion include market access for apparel and selected agri-processed goods, customs facilitation at U.S. ports, and rules of origin that allow use of third-country inputs while retaining preference benefits.

AGOA Clock and Hill Math

AGOA’s current authorization expires in September 2025 unless Congress acts. The Congressional Research Service reiterates the deadline and outlines options ranging from a short bridge to multi-year renewal with reforms. Business groups and African manufacturers have pressed for at least a brief extension to avoid disruption; delegations in Washington this week sought a one- to two-year runway while longer-term talks continue.

Kenyan officials argue a domestic fallback is still needed until Congress clarifies timing. Without renewal, many products would shift to most-favored-nation tariffs at U.S. ports, forcing price resets by buyers and changes to factory schedules on short notice. Prior analysis also notes that U.S. imports from AGOA beneficiaries have fallen from their 2008 peak, sharpening the stakes for countries relying on apparel orders to anchor jobs and investment.

Factory Orders and Next Checks

Exporters in Kenya’s apparel value chain—centered in export-processing zones near Nairobi and Athi River—say continuity on Kenya US trade preferences will determine overtime plans and first-quarter shipping calendars. Near-term signals include whether major U.S. retailers delay, split or confirm purchase orders for late-year deliveries; a clean AGOA renewal or a Kenya-U.S. stop-gap could reverse hedging quickly. U.S. Census trade tables and USTR data show steady recent growth in Kenya-U.S. flows, a base that manufacturers warn could be dented by even a brief lapse.

Negotiators are expected to refine text in the coming days on customs processes and origin rules so that any announced “duty-free” access translates into predictable landed costs at U.S. ports. For policy-makers on both sides, the immediate question is sequencing: whether Congress delivers an AGOA extension before Sept 30 or whether Nairobi must rely on a bilateral to avoid a tariff cliff while a larger renewal package is debated.