Nigeria To Adjust Inflation Reporting After Rebasing

Tuesday 20th January 2026

By inAfrika Newsroom

Nigeria’s statistics agency says it will revise how it reports inflation after a planned index rebasing is expected to create an artificial spike in the year on year figure, a move aimed at preserving data credibility for policy and market decisions. The Nigeria inflation reporting change follows concerns that December’s headline rate will jump sharply due to base effects rather than real world price acceleration.

The National Bureau of Statistics said the rebasing set December 2024 as the new reference period, which can distort comparisons when the index is still transitioning. Analysts have flagged that year on year inflation could appear to surge to around 30% from 14.45% in November, driven mainly by the technical change. NBS officials said the spike would not reflect actual month to month price movement.

To address the distortion, the agency plans to replace the single month reference period with a 12 month reference period for 2024, a method designed to better capture underlying trends and smooth the impact of rebasing. The update matters for Nigeria because inflation data influences central bank policy, wage negotiations, and household expectations in the region’s largest economy.

The data shift lands as Nigeria positions itself in what officials describe as a consolidation phase after two years of major reforms, including subsidy removal and foreign exchange adjustments. Officials have pointed to improvements in headline indicators, even as households and labour groups continue to highlight cost of living pressures.

Reliable inflation series also matters for investors and lenders. It affects pricing of government debt, corporate credit risk, and investment decisions tied to consumer demand. If headline inflation is perceived as unreliable, markets may rely more heavily on alternative indicators, which can weaken policy signalling and increase uncertainty.

For neighbouring West African economies, Nigeria’s inflation narrative can influence trade expectations and currency sentiment, given the country’s import demand and regional supply chain role.

Next steps

For Nigeria inflation reporting change, the statistics agency is expected to publish guidance on the revised series and how historical comparisons should be interpreted during the transition. Policymakers and market analysts will also watch how the Central Bank of Nigeria and fiscal authorities reference the updated data in 2026 planning and communication.

Why it matters

Nigeria inflation reporting change matters because investors, households, and policymakers need consistent signals to price risk and plan spending. Regionally, a credible inflation series supports more accurate comparisons across West Africa and reduces the chance that technical noise triggers market overreaction.