South Africa revises debt peak to 74.6% after GDP update

Thursday 5th November 2026

By inAfrika Newsroom

South Africa’s National Treasury has revised the estimated peak in government debt to 74.6% of gross domestic product in 2025/26, compared with 78.4% in its medium-term budget statement, after a statistical revision increased measured GDP.

The adjustment changes the size of the economy used in the ratio, rather than the projected amount of debt. Treasury said on 5 November that its revenue, spending and debt projections were unchanged, according to the government news agency SAnews.

The revised debt ratio is forecast to fall below 70% in 2032/33, one year earlier than previously projected. The main budget deficit for 2026/27 is now put at 3.5% of GDP, against 3.7% before the revision.

The primary surplus, which excludes interest payments, is forecast at 1.6% of GDP in 2026/27 rather than 1.7%, rising to 2.8% in 2029/30 rather than 2.9%. A larger GDP denominator lowers these surplus ratios as well as the debt and deficit ratios.

Statistics South Africa announced the revised GDP series on 29 October. Benchmarking updates the data and methods used to estimate economic activity; the Treasury said the 2027 Budget would provide updated economic forecasts and fiscal projections.

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